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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.