Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
